INDUCED SEISMICITY: Where are we now, and what challenges do we face?

This is a series of webinars organized by TCS AH Consortium.

speaker: Lukasz Rudzinski (Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Science, Poland)

topic:Estimation of the largest possible seismic event for mining-induced seismicity

Abstract

The study aims to assess the maximum possible magnitude of seismic events using various data from seismological, geological, and geodetic observations. Several methods are applied to the anthropogenic seismicity generated by the Bogdanka Coal Mine in Poland. We examine different strategies and scenarios, using the seismic event catalogue, the presence of tectonic faults, and ground deformation observations as input information. Our findings indicate that a seismic event catalogue alone may be inadequate for the reliable estimation of future maximum magnitudes in mining areas. Including information from geodetic observations improves the accuracy of maximum event magnitude estimations and can be regarded as a valid approach for predicting future seismic activities in mines.

co-authors:
Lukasz Rudzinski (Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Science, Poland),
Andrzej Kijko (Natural Hazards Centre, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa),
Katarzyna Mirek (AGH University of Sciences and Technology, Kraków Poland),
Dawid Mól (Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka S.A., Bogdanka, Poland)